La Quiniela at a glance
| Run by | Loterías y Apuestas del Estado (Spain) |
|---|---|
| Games | 14 |
| Price | €0.75 per line |
| Prizes below the top prize | 13, 12, 11, 10 correct out of 14 |
| Top prize | 55% of takings go to prizes, split into categories by correct picks; the Pleno al 15 pays the top prize |
| Closes | Before the first match on the coupon |
| On the coupon | 1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win |
How the La Quiniela works
Loterías y Apuestas del Estado picks 14 football matches and you predict the result of each one: 1 for a home win, X for a draw and 2 for an away win. Only the result after normal time counts. One prediction for every game is one line; covering two results of a game (a double) or all three (a triple) multiplies the lines, and the cost, by 2 or 3.
Plus the Pleno al 15: the exact goals (0, 1, 2 or M for three or more) of each team in a 15th match. It counts only with all 14 results right.
Your real chances
Every extra game makes a perfect card much harder. This table shows the chance of getting all 14 right, and of reaching a prize, for a blind guess and for a tipster who is right 40% to 60% of the time on each game.
| Picks right | All 14 right | 10+ right (any prize) |
|---|---|---|
| Blind guess (33%) | 1 in 4,782,969 | 0.404% (1 in 248) |
| 40% per pick | 1 in 372,529 | 1.75% (1 in 57) |
| 50% per pick | 1 in 16,384 | 8.98% (1 in 11) |
| 55% per pick | 1 in 4,314 | 16.7% (1 in 6) |
| 60% per pick | 1 in 1,276 | 27.9% (1 in 4) |
The chance of each prize tier
| Correct | At 50% per pick | At 60% per pick |
|---|---|---|
| 14 of 14 (top prize) | 0.0061% | 0.0784% |
| 13 of 14 | 0.0854% | 0.731% |
| 12 of 14 | 0.555% | 3.17% |
| 11 of 14 | 2.22% | 8.45% |
| 10 of 14 | 6.11% | 15.5% |
What doubles and triples cost
The cost is the price of one line times the number of lines. The last column assumes each single is right half the time and each double 80% of the time. Try your own numbers in the jackpot calculator.
| Ticket | Lines | Cost | Chance of all 14 right |
|---|---|---|---|
| Singles only | 1 | €0.75 | 1 in 16,384 |
| 1 double | 2 | €1.50 | 1 in 10,240 |
| 2 doubles | 4 | €3 | 1 in 6,400 |
| 3 doubles | 8 | €6 | 1 in 4,000 |
| 5 doubles | 32 | €24 | 1 in 1,562 |
| 1 triple | 3 | €2.25 | 1 in 8,192 |
| 3 triples | 27 | €20.25 | 1 in 2,048 |
| 2 doubles + 1 triple | 12 | €9 | 1 in 3,200 |
| 3 doubles + 2 triples | 72 | €54 | 1 in 1,000 |
How to approach the La Quiniela
Start from the chances, not the names. A big club away from home is often closer to 45% than to the 70% its name suggests. Pick the most likely result of every game, then look at how sure each pick really is.
Spend doubles on the closest games. A double on a 40% pick that has a 30% second choice lifts that game to 70%. The same double on a 75% favourite adds little. Our bonus ticket puts its 5 doubles where they add the most.
Do not fear the draw. Around a quarter of football matches end level, so a coupon of 14 games will usually hold several draws. A ticket with no X on it is betting against the numbers.
Play for the bonus, hope for the jackpot. 10 out of 14 is a realistic target for a careful ticket; all 14 is a lottery-sized chance even for the best tipster.
Never chase. A jackpot is entertainment. Decide what a week's ticket may cost before you open the coupon, and never buy more lines to win back last week.
Rules worth knowing
- 14 matches, 1X2, plus the Pleno al 15 (exact goals in a 15th match).
- €0.75 per bet, at least 2 bets per coupon (€1.50 minimum) and up to 8.
- Prizes for 14, 13, 12, 11 and 10 correct, shared between the winners of each category.
- Results at the end of normal time count; extra time does not.
- Elige8 is an optional add-on: choose 8 of the 14 matches for a separate prize.
Rules last checked on 2026-10-16. Operators change their terms, so confirm them on Loterías y Apuestas del Estado's site or app. We are not linked to Loterías y Apuestas del Estado.
La Quiniela prediction: frequently asked questions
What is the Pleno al 15?
A 15th match where you predict each team's goals: 0, 1, 2 or M (three or more). It only pays when all 14 results are also right, and it pays the top prize.
How much does La Quiniela cost?
€0.75 per bet, with at least 2 bets on a coupon, so €1.50 is the smallest coupon.
Are La Quiniela predictions guaranteed?
No. Nobody can guarantee a jackpot result: each game is a real football match. Our picks are the most likely result of each game, worked out from data and prices, and we publish how many we got right every round.
When are the La Quiniela predictions published?
As soon as Loterías y Apuestas del Estado publishes the coupon. The chances are updated as prices move until the coupon closes, so check again close to kick-off.
Can I buy fixed La Quiniela results?
No, and anyone who sells them is running a scam. Jackpot games are real matches between real teams; a seller who knew the results would not need your money.
18+ only. A jackpot is a game of chance: play for fun, set a budget and never chase losses. Read our responsible gambling page.