1. The coupon
As soon as an operator publishes a jackpot coupon we read its games, kick-off times and closing time, and match every game to the fixture in our football data. A game we cannot match yet shows “pending” until we can.
2. The chance of each result
For every game we estimate the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. The estimate combines recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away records, and the bookmakers' prices, which carry information about injuries and team news. The three chances always add up to 100%.
3. Our pick and the double
The pick is the most likely result. The double is the two most likely results. A pick above 60% is a strong one; a pick under 45% means the game is close and any result could happen.
4. The two tickets
The single line is our pick for every game: one line, the cheapest ticket. The bonus ticket adds doubles, within the jackpot's limits, on the games where a second result adds the most chance for its cost. That is almost always the closest games, never the strong favourites.
With each ticket we show what it costs and its chance of getting every game right and of reaching a prize, worked out exactly from the chances of each game.
5. The record
Once every game has been played we mark each pick right or wrong, using the result after 90 minutes as the operators do. The round goes into the jackpot's results archive and into our record. Nothing is edited or removed afterwards.
What the numbers cannot do
A jackpot is still a game of chance. Even with good picks a perfect card is rare: at 60% a game, 17 out of 17 happens about once in 5,900 tries. Play for fun, set a budget and read our responsible gambling page.
How we predict: frequently asked questions
Why do you show percentages and not only a pick?
Because a 40% pick and a 70% pick are very different bets. The percentages show which games are close, which is exactly where a double belongs.
Do the picks change before the coupon closes?
The chances can move as prices and team news change, until the coupon closes. After that the picks are frozen and later marked against the results.
What happens to a postponed game?
We show it as postponed. How it is settled depends on the operator's rules, which differ between jackpots, so check them on the operator's site.